ArkStream Capital: Where are we in this cycle?
Good afternoon, everyone! Thank you all for joining us today at Streamcon for the ArkStream Capital Partner Marketing Conference. It’s exciting to see such a strong turnout, with over 1,000 registrations. Make sure to find a seat up front!
About ArkStream Capital
For those unfamiliar, ArkStream Capital is a crypto-native fund founded in 2020. Our team comes with diverse backgrounds from MIT, Stanford, Google, Accenture, Tencent, and we’ve managed over 100 portfolio companies.
Agenda
Today’s agenda includes:
1. My opening speech
2. Three keynote presentations
3. Three panel discussions covering AI, infrastructure scalability, and cybersecurity.
Where Are We in the Cycle?
One of the most common questions I’ve received over the past six months is: Where are we in this cycle? Today, I’ll address this question, discuss whether we should buy Bitcoin or continue holding, and explore what RG investment entails. I’ll also share three predictions based on our current cycle.
The Gold ETF Graph
Let’s begin by looking at a graph of Gold ETFs. This spans from 2004, when Gold ETFs were launched, to 2011. Over the past seven years, gold prices surged from $400 to $1,600 per ounce, and the total market cap increased from $2 trillion to $10 trillion. By 2014, gold had firmly established itself as a mainstream asset held by institutions worldwide.
Bitcoin’s Journey
Now, let’s turn our attention to Bitcoin. How many of you have never bought Bitcoin before 2020? (Raises hands) Most of you have invested. Bitcoin has transitioned from being an alternative asset to a mainstream asset, especially with the launch of ETFs this year.
Currently, Bitcoin’s market cap stands at $1 trillion, compared to gold’s initial $2 trillion market cap. My first prediction is that starting this year, we will enter a long cycle for Bitcoin, moving away from the previous four-year cycles of two years up and two years down. I believe Bitcoin will mirror gold’s trajectory over the next five to ten years.
Impact of Upcoming Interest Rate Cuts
Looking ahead, we are just two days away from a highly anticipated interest rate cut, which could significantly impact our industry. In the last cycle, the market cap of global risk assets increased by 40% within two years of an interest rate cut, despite recession pressures during the pandemic.
My second prediction is that we are returning to an era of abundant liquidity, similar to what we experienced in 2020.
Bitcoin vs. Ethereum
Now, let’s discuss the differences between Bitcoin and Ethereum. Bitcoin serves primarily as digital gold, a store of value and a safe haven asset. In contrast, Ethereum represents a more dynamic infrastructure with various applications.
If we think of the entire Web3 space as a country, we currently have a population of only around 29 million. This country lacks daily productivity, but possesses three key characteristics:
1. Revolutionary productive relationships: Every content creator is also a stakeholder.
2. High capital efficiency: Anyone can interact with any asset globally.
3. Permissionless participation: Anyone can join without restrictions.
Are We Too Late?
After seven years in this industry, I often hear the question: Am I too late? Currently, there are around 400 million crypto users, but only about 20 million engage with Ethereum and its infrastructure. This means we are only 5% of the potential market, indicating substantial room for growth.
Mass Adoption
When will mass adoption happen? We’ve seen some progress, but true mass adoption will likely stem from established applications integrating blockchain technology rather than purely native applications.
Optimism for the Future
My third prediction reflects a conversation I had last month with Con Quinn, founder of Sample Blockchain. In financial markets, we often become overly pessimistic. However, as we move forward, we will see significant advancements in applications and infrastructure, leading to a healthy market increase.
ArkStream Capital’s Investments
In the past year, ArkStream Capital has invested in over 30 projects, focusing on three main areas:
1. Bitcoin: As a leading asset in the cryptocurrency space.
2. AI and DeFi: We anticipate growth in marketplaces and AI agents.
3. Scalability and infrastructure: Ensuring blockchain technology is accessible and user-friendly.
Conclusion
This concludes my opening speech. I hope you found my three predictions insightful. Let’s see how they unfold over the coming months. Thank you, and enjoy the rest of the conference!
ArkStream Capital is a venture capital firm specializing in early-stage investments in Web3 unicorns.
Founded by crypto experts with pedigrees from MIT, Stanford, Tencent, Google, and BlackRock, ArkStream leverages eight years of deep Web3 expertise to drive the zero-to-one growth of its portfolio companies.
ArkStream Capital is managing a portfolio of over 100 companies, including Aave, Flow, Sei, Manta, Fhenix, Merlin, Particle Network, and Space and Time.
